Okay, so I'll let you in on how I'm choosing the writing order of the divisions. I wrote all six divisions down, put them in a box, shook the box, and let my cat, Todd, dive into the box and whatever division he comes out with is the one I write about. The only reason I bring this up is because it has created a major problem in that he is attacking me every time I get near anything resembling a box. So, to a feline, a laptop is similar enough to warrant a high alert reaction. As I am typing this, I have cuts on my wrists, bite marks one both hands, feet, and ankles, and am living in fear every moment. I have created a monster. My dog on the other hand, is barking at everything that passes across our back door. Seeing that it is autumn, and the leaves are being blown by the wind, I am finding it hard to achieve any semblance of peace and/or quiet. Where am I going with this? Fair question. Nowhere. Just a reminder that it is fall, which means Hot Stove action. Oh, and never give a cat executive privileges.
Today I drop it like it's hot on....the AL Central!!!
Chicago White Sox
I feel the need to always be up front and let you know that this is my team. I have been a White Sox fan since birth, and I am proud of it. So if it seems as if this is a more lengthy or in-depth analysis of the Sox (and these are the real Sox); it is.
This is the first offseason of the Kenny Williams era that Sox fans have absolutely no idea what Kenny is going to do. Usually, Kenny does something that is totally unexpected, but he tends to go into the offseason with some sort of plan and just happens to change it last minute. This year, no one can honestly say they know what Kenny Williams is going to do. Hell, it seems as if Kenny Williams doesn't know what Kenny Williams is going to do.
This team is teetering dangerously between a legit contender and in need of a "rebuild". Kenny has always maintained his desire to try to contend every single year, but this year there is more emphasis on such a declaration. Kenny cannot waiver this year. He can go young if he wants, and Sox fans will, at least for the most part, understand and get behind a young core of players that include Gordan Beckham, John Danks, Dayan Viciedo, and Chris Sale. But, if he decides this team is to contend in 2011, then he must go all in. There can be no in-between moves that keeps the White Sox solid for this year, next year, and the year after that. Chicago fans understand an 85 win team and lightening in a bottle won't make you consistent division favorites now or in the years to come. So, the biggest decision of this offseason for the White Sox is simple...what direction do we go?
If Kenny decides to go young, there won't be a lot of drama. A.J Pierzynski...he gone. Paul Konerko...he gone. Bobby Jenks...well...he was gone at about midseason last year.
But if Kenny decides to go for broke, and try to make a splash; well then, all Hell could break loose.
I firmly believe that Kenny Williams is going to take a long, hard look at Adam Dunn. Dunn represents the answer to the one glaring hole on the White Sox roster last year...left-handed power in the middle of the order.
The problem is that Dunn is already leery of signing on the South Side in part because he already knows the letters D and H would be attached to his name quite often. So, the real chances of Kenny landing his "big fish" via free agency goes out the window (assuming they have zero chance of signing Carl Crawford). So, then, Kenny does what he does best, which is wheel and deal.
About 2 weeks before Jake Peavy's muscle ripped from bone and Peavy's season was ended I had the feeling that Gavin Floyd was not long for a White Sox uniform. And to be honest, my feelings haven't wavered one bit on this subject. The fact that the Chi-Sox are trying to extend John Danks leads me to believe that are looking to shore up some young pitching to make some other young (or fairly young) and affordable pitching expendable. Enter Gavin Floyd. In 2009, Floyd signed a 4 year, $15 million extention, with a club option for 2013. This means affordable pitching under team control, and this is something a lot of teams are willing to part with bats for.
A Floyd based package for Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez is not at all out of the question. But it's not just Floyd I expect to be a part of these deals, it's also Carlos Quentin. The Sox have to make a decision about whether Quentin replicate his 2008 MVP type performace, or if they should deal him while the coals are still hot. One of Williams' best traits is that he always seems to know when to pull the trigger on a player at the right time. And here, I can very easily see Kenny parting with Quentin in order to get a big return.
Also, don't count out something happening with any of the trio in Los Angeles. Kenny Williams has long been linked to Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Andre Either. It would not be a surprise to see Kenny maybe package Floyd, Quentin, and a prospect to land Matt Kemp, who has begun to wear out his welcome with the Dodgers. A fat chance in Hell? Yes. But it does kind of make sense.
One other name to watch via Chi-Sox trades: Colby Rasmus. Not sure exactly what St. Louis would want (Quentin would look fantastic hitting behind Albert Pujols), but the rumors have been swirling.
The White Sox would surely love to land the likes of Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre actually would fit the need of both a bat and glove desperately needed at the hot corner, but both figure to be out of Chicago's price range. The Sox seem to be posturing themselves for a run at Adam Dunn, and if that fails, well then let the bargain hunting begin. Adam Laroche would almost surely be targeted. Aubrey Huff, Lyle Overday, and Carlos Peña would all fit the bill as cheaper than Dunn left handed bats that could be plugged into the middle of the order. Johnny Damon is another possibility, but I just don't see the need of having another outfielder on the roster who doesn't have a lot of power and can't throw a lick (see: Juan Pierre). The only outfield left-handed option I could honestly foresee is Brad Hawpe, but that all depends on whether he is going to want an incentive based deal, which Williams would be more likely to suggest, or get paid upfront.
The only thing that is for sure, or at least close to it, is that Bobby Jenks is gone, and Rafeal Soriano is the main target. The Sox could let Matt Thornton become the starter, and try to fill his spot with someone along the lines of a Jason Frasor or Matt Guerrier.
Like I said earlier, Williams could go absolutely any direction this offseason and it would be hard to say one didn't see it coming.All anyone does know is that it is going to be a circus on the south side of Chicago this winter.
Cleveland Indians
Talk about an organizational mess. I haven't seen a mess this bad since I saw Taylor Swift's face in one of those Proactiv commercials.
Two of their best players can't stay healthy (Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore), they have the only closer in the Majors who when scouts say "He's lucky if he can keep it in the park," they are talking about the location of his fastball, their "best" prospect, Matt LaPorta, suddenly morphed into Michael Brantley, and their best player, Shin Soo Choo needs to win gold at the Asian Games just so his "gun" from right field is his arm and not a firearm the Korean military gave him.
Cleveland is not at all enjoying this rebuilding process, especially since they've watched former aces CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee make World Series appearances in back to back World Series. There is no sign of this team getting any better this offseason, but they could, and should be bold in some of their moves.
The Indians need bullpen pitching worse than Robin Williams needs a wax. Their bullpen was inconsistent and misses far too few bats to warrant the number of times they miss the strike zone. Big names won't find themselves on the Indians radar, but Mike MacDougal and John Rauch would give the Indians some relief as well as cost them nothing in terms of giving up picks.
Where Cleveland could get real creative is in their starting rotation. Fausto Carmona and Justin Masteson are two very good arms at the top of the rotation. If Cleveland throws in a name or two like Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Jarrod Washburn, or Vincente Padilla, then the rotation will at least be competitive. But a guy I see making a lot of sense would be someone like Aaron Harang. He most likely will be made available by the Reds (club option), and he is a guy who at one time was a top 20 pitcher in the NL. It might be worth a look to see if he has anything left in the tank.
As far as position players, expect them to only sign guys who are seeking opportunities to show they still have a lot left. Eric Chavez could be a real option here. Cleveland needs a 3rd baseman and Chavez was at one time one of the better 3rd basemen in the league. Chavez has recently showed a real interest in making a return to the field full time, and somewhere like Cleveland gives him a real opportunity.
Besides that, expect it to be very quiet in Cleveland this winter...that is until LeBron comes back into town.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are probably the most frustrating team in this division. On paper, they always seem as if they should be a front-runner for the division, or at least be in the race until the last day. The problem is, that's on paper. In 2009 when the Tigers were in the race until the final day, but they went ahead and blew a significant division lead and lost the division to the Twins in the end. Detroit is the consummate underachievers of the AL Central.
The problem with the organization is I find that Dave Dombrowski seems to want to make a big splash every offseason, but he sacrifices filling several of the teams holes in place of the 1 big piece. The Tigers have been rumored to be heavy after Adam Dunn, and while the addition of Dunn would surely give the Tigers the best 3-4 combo in the AL with Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers really don't need a big bat with a less than desired glove.
Where would they play Dunn? Would they platoon him at 1B and DH with Miguel Cabrera? Would they actually put him in that spacious outfield at Comerica Park? These questions are important, and all the further evidence that they should focus on the other big bats available this offseason, such as Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, and Adrian Beltre.
In my opinion, Crawford would make the biggest impact for Detroit, giving them a 5-tool player out in left field that could hit 2nd in the batting order behind Austin Jackson or hit 3rd in front of Miguel Cabrera. The intriguing thing about bringing either Martinez, Werth, and Beltre is that they would finally give Cabrera some real protection in the order. Dombrowski will have to figure out what is most important to this offense, and then how to supplement the rest of his needs in the line-up with mid leve free agents.
The Tigers' real challenge will be trying to fortify a pitching staff that has been marred by injury and inconsistency. They came to terms with Joaquin Benoit yesterday, which is a major move because Joel Zumaya has been one arm injury after the next. Benoit gives the Tigers a much needed arm in the back end of the bullpen, but I wouldn't be so content just to stop there if I was Detroit's GM. Adding someone else like Aaron Heilman or Mike MacDougal might go a long way to help ensure that this bullpen stays effective.
The starting staff, on the other hand, is the model of "looks good on paper" failures. Their rotation seems to have quality arms throughout, with Verlander being the clear cut ace of the staff, but the issue is that they can't seem to get enough consistency from guys like Armando Galarraga and Rick Porcello. Trying to bring in an innings eater like John Garland, who knows the benefits of pitching in a large ballpark, could prove beneficial and provide insurance if Porcello or Galarraga don't cut it in 2011.
I don't expect any major moves to their rotation for 2011, which would be a mistake, but as we have seen from the Tigers over the last few years, they are accustomed to making big moves turn into big mistakes. I don't see this winter being much different.
Kansas City Royals
A perennial basement dweller in the AL Central, the Royals are seeing no light at the end of the tunnel this offseason. They made a strong move to acquire Vin Mazzaro and Justing Marks from Oakland, but they got rid of quite possibly their best all around position player in David DeJesus in the deal. And to make matters worse, they are listening to offers for Zach Greinke, so any chance of competing in the next few years is becoming seemingly more fiction than fact.
Gil Meche has been a disappointment for the Royals, and they have made some moves to go younger in their rotation, trying to replicate the success of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. They don't have the pieces that the Rays had in 2008, but they are at least trying to make their small payroll work to the best of its abilities.
As far as any major moves, it will be more export than import. The Royals are sellers every year, and this offseason could be their most crippling clearance sale to date. Whether or not Kansas City gets anyone to give the return they want for Greinke is yet to be seen, but regardless of what the get back, it will still be a tough pill to swallow to get rid of the face of that franchise.
The Royals will merely be in the market for guys who simply couldn't sign anywhere else and could help benefit the development of the young players on the roster. They could be a landing spot for someone like Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang or any other arms that are looking to resurrect careers for a bargain price, but even the likelyhood of that seems minute for Kansas City.
It's kind of sad that George Brett is still the biggest star in the park any time he shows up to a Royals game. Kansas City will do nothing to change this perception this winter. They just better hope that this winter brings enough cold to freeze Hell. Then, and only then, will they have a chance in 2011.
Minnesota Twins
Does it even matter what moves this team makes anymore. Every time they lose a player to injury or free agency, there is another player in the organization just waiting to step in and produce. The Twins are the best model of what an organization truly is. And being a White Sox fan, this is annoyingly impressive.
Last year the Twins landed themselves a bargain gem with Jim Thome, and they are hoping to retain his services even though, while the sentiment is mutual, the price so far has not been. The one thing the Twins weren't lacking last year was left handed power. With Thome, Kubel, Mauer (I will count doubles power as power), and before he got knocked out for the season with a concussion, Justin Morneau. And with guys like Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, and Danny Valencia, this team's offense is no need of an immediate makeover. The starting rotation, well, that's another story.
Francisco Liriano established himself as a legitimate ace who has fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery a few years ago, so depth might be more important than big names, but Minnesota could find themselves going after some of the biggern name pitchers on the market anyway. You can pretty much count the Twins out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but Jorge De La Rosa should be someone they at least test the market on. If he signs elsewhere, then pitchers like Brad Penny and Kevin Millwood have some real attraction. The key, though, to the Twins staff, is retaining Carl Pavano. Since Pavano became a Twin, he's been both consistent and a horse, pitching 221 innings last year. If they can retain Pavano, add another quality arm, and keep everyone healthy, Minnesota would become a real AL World Series contender.
The key to the Twins offseason is more patchwork than big fish. If Thome and Orlando Hudson, both free agents, cut ties with the Twins, expect the Twins to make moves on someone like Jason Werth. And if Werth proves to be too pricey, then Vlad Guerrero or Magglio Ordonez could be adequately priced bats to plug in the line-up.
With Matt Guerrier and John Rauch both free agents, and Joe Nathan's timetable for a return still uncertain, they Twins will have to keep tabs on their pen to make sure it doesn't get decimated this offseason. They would most likely prefer to retain Rauch and Guerrier, but if they defect, then Minnesota's target could be J.J. Putz. Not only would it give them more insurance by bringing in another possible closer, and a great 8th inning arm at the least, it would also hurt their AL Central rival, the Chicago White Sox.
Whatever the Minnesota Twins decide to do this offseason, one would be smart to put money down that things will work out well in Minnesota. If they happen to make any big splashes, then you might as well punch their ticket to the ALCS, where they will promptly get swept by the New York Yankees.
-Ben Wills
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