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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

It's a War on WAR

.329/44/137 (plus 1.001 OPS and 375 TBs) as of 10/01/12
Over the past couple of weeks, a ridiculous battle has played out in the press and blogosphere over the AL MVP race. If it sounds familiar, that’s because this battle has taken place over the last decade, in one form or other, at the end of every baseball season. A group of cigar chomping, fedora wearing BBWA standard-bearers (or run-of-the-mill hacks at the Daily News) will espouse the merits of a "baseball player" while decrying the confusing theorems of eggheads. Likewise, the eggheads belittle the writers’ intelligence and bandy about accusations of cantankerousness because the writers are too busy watching baseball to do the math which so clearly demonstrates the superiority of a player who puts up numbers only they understand.

I paint with the broad-stroke stylings of the arguers in question, because, I mean, come on, straw men are so much easier to kick down. Am I right?

.325/30/83 (plus 48 SBs and 129 Runs) as of 10/01/12
Baseball fans are (possibly) witnessing the first Triple Crown performance since 1967. However, Mike Trout, like a wraith on Christmas Eve, has given us a glimpse of baseball future. And, my god, it’s pretty. 

Now debate ensues as to who rightfully deserves the accolades. But put all of that aside for a moment. 

The sabermetricians and baseball writers, long involved in an escalating race to arm their respective soapboxes, are preparing to go to battle over WAR (wins above replacement). In essence, WAR attempts to calculate the number of wins a given player is responsible for as opposed to some schlub pulled from AAA (not solely AAA—the notion is that it’s a guy who’s better than you or I, but not very good by MLB standards).

The arguments tend to go like this:

Fedora Wearer: The MVP is Miggy. I know because I watch him play. I understand baseball.

Guy with a computer coming out of his hands: Miggy?! Have you seen his dWar?

FW: Speak English. Miggy is the first Triple Crown winner since Yaz.

GWCCOHH: Yaz is so yesteryear. Besides the makers of Yaz (Bayer AG) are getting their pants sued off because it turns out Yaz isn’t so wonderful. But enough already. Trout is besting Cabrera by 12 in oRAR.

FW: (mumbling something about Dave Parker and Daffy Dean)

GWC…: If you skew for Wins Above Average, it’s not even close.

FW: (rolling up sleeves, mush-mouthing a Dutch Masters) I’m gonna beat you like Max Bear did Frankie Cambell.

GWC: (runs from room) Not now, Big Bang Theory is on!

…and scene.

Here’s the thing, as of this writing Cabrera is hitting .327/44/137 with an OPS (if you’re so inclined) of 1.001. Detractors point to his 28 GIDP. They conveniently neglect to recognize that he’s a three-hole hitter who will never be asked to lay down a sac bunt, and therefore, yes, he will hit into double plays. They’ll also point to his insufficient defense. It is insufficient...if by that you mean completely adequate. He’s got good hands, a great arm, and little range. He’s paid to produce the first set of numbers I listed, not for his RF/9. He also happens to be the premiere hitter in Major League Baseball.

What’s sad is that, if he’s awarded the MVP, people are going to complain.

But Mike Trout's WAR is among the best in HISTORY, the sabermetricians will say. It's a full 4 points higher than Cabrera. You're an impossible idiot if you can't see that, they'll say. Then they'll make fun of you for thinking batting average, HRs, and RBIs mean jack.

They are extremely defensive about challenges to their beloved WAR. Just point out that there are competing versions of WAR (an impediment to wide acceptance among baseball fans), and they're sure to point out that you don't have an advanced statistics class on your college transcript. Point out that many of the metrics involve human inputs, such as assigning ~52 wins (why not 41?) for the hasbeen/neverwas that is this statistical apparition known as replacement player, and you'll quickly be reminded of how much smarter they are than you.

To them, there can be only one true winner and WAR makes the difference. So they tout Trout.

Meanwhile, Mike Trout, who leads in a significant number of SABR categories, has become the most rounded, intimidating player since Rickey Henderson. He flat-out terrorizes opponents: he’ll club you to death, run you to death, and leap a wall in a single bound, all in the confines of a 9 inning frame. Play that out 162 times a year and see where you wind up. And Trout is only 21. 

Yet, if he wins, people are going to complain.

Writers will bemoan the mercurial WAR upon which many have based the Trout-for-MVP campaign. They’ll flack the old-timey stats like RBIs and Batting Average, praising their comprehensibility. They’ll criticize fielding statistics as woefully inept (which even many fans of sabermetrics concede). They’ll foresee—like end-time prophets—a day when games on the field cease and games on computers are aired on TV. The writers will hype this false dilemma and threaten that if you even so much as look at a hitter's BABIP, they'll break you in half, you pencil-neck geek.

To the writers, if Miggy pulls off something only the likes of which were achieved by guys like Joe Medwick, Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams, then he's the only viable choice. They'll dismiss the defensive part of the equation, citing it has never really factored in before (which, just because it's accurate, doesn't mean it's right).

[Note: my BBWA stereotype is sadly outdated. I wish the baseball writers were still the robust giants of the 1930s press boxes. Today, there's no discerning the dweeby scribes from the geeky stat gurus. Note within a note: FWIW, not all BBWA suck. Ray Ratto, is decent, but he's moving to television. He also looks like a younger, fatter Wilford Brimley. If Peter Gammons can ever stop talking about the goddamn Red Sox for one goddamn second, he's tolerable. Bill James, on the other side, introduced a new approach to understanding an old game, which is commendable. However, he has shown himself to be an ignoramus. He is largely responsible for Dick Allen's clubhouse reputation—a reputation disputed by virtually every teammate Allen ever had. Digression over.]

What’s sad is that the argument over baseball-worldviews is going to drown out the acknowledgement that we just bore witness to two of the greatest performances in the history of the game.

We won. We, the fans, who are drawn to this game for its poetry as much as its bookkeeping, walk away winners.

As a White Sox fan, I wish like hell Miggy didn’t have the season he had. But as a baseball fan—first and foremost—I know what I saw was nothing short of historic.

As for watching Trout play, if you don’t get 6th-grade-boy-asking-a-crush-to-the-dance butterflies, then you’ve lost the boy inside that's necessary to appreciate the game of baseball. It has always been a kid’s game, after all, and I hope it continues to be.

I’ll  always look with interest toward new metrics as they’re defined (and refined, and refined again [WAR undergoes revisions on a near-monthly basis]), but I’ll never trade the outcomes of equations for the spectacle itself.

Now if any writer with a vote has someone other than Trout or Cabrera in the top slots, I'll beat them like Max Baer did Ernie Schaaf (in Baer v. Schaaf II).

Ring Magazine's #20 Heavyweight Champ of All Time
 -Kyle Wills

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The Empire Strikes Out; or Look Ma, No Hands

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The blaze of summer sun kept me homebound this weekend, locked up in the cool of earthwarming, home-cooling air. And whilst I waited for some late night West Coast baseball, I had nothing better to do during the day than flip between soccer and golf.

I watch soccer on occasional whims, and golf exactly four times a year (I won’t bother mentioning which four). By the end of Sunday, I came to some conclusions as to where my preferences lie.

*

While the rest of the world has married soccer (or football, as they’ll have it), the U.S. has maintained its steadfast bachelorhood towards it, preferring to occasionally flirt with the notion of hooliganism but always opting for further conquests of tantalizing athletic strange. There’s always time to settle down.

What I mean is, we get into soccer when there are high chauvinistic stakes, when chants of U-S-A get to be our vuvuzela counterparts. Otherwise, we stick to our four major team sports and sprinkle in some NASCAR here and there. That is not to say there aren’t rabid soccer fans in the States, and I don’t mean to discount them, but if they’d look beyond their suburban-East Coast, private school surroundings, they may notice that the rest of the country only cares if national pride is on the line. We don’t, for the most part, own any of those fancy scarves.

That said, I initially figured there’d be little to entice me into watching any of the UEFA European Championships.

*

Meanwhile, the U.S. Open was taking place on the West Coast on a seemingly 45º angle. Even before the match started, players’ danders were collectively up about the difficulty of the Olympic Clubs’ course. It was too fast. It was falling into Lake Merced. It was haunted. Okay, I made the last one up (but the fog was very Scooby Doo-esque).

But golf is, by all accounts, an international game with international players and an international following. And given that it was a major, I was in for the long haul.

*

In the matches at Euro 2012, I quickly found my favorites. I am one of those sad customers who need a rooting interest if I’m to watch a good bit of soccer, so why not stick to chauvinism’s close kin: pride in ancestral nationalities.

I’m a mutt of Northern European descent, so I narrowed my options to two: England and Netherlands (I would have taken Ireland, but boy did they get spanked early).  Nonetheless, I don't mean to belabor my viewer experience vis-à-vis my rooting interests. Instead, it’s more what I witnessed of the attendants of the matches in host countries Poland and Ukraine.

Enthusiasm about soccer is not noteworthy outside of the U.S. It’s a given, in fact. Every crowd member’s dress corresponds to their team’s colors. Some don face paint. Many have flags. (Still, nothing new or surprising, but these are the facts.) Most notable is their tendency to not shut up throughout the entirety of the two 45 minute halves. They live the agony and ecstasy that is, as Mitt Romney would say, sport with every second of action on the pitch.

*

In San Francisco, the amateurs and card carriers 3-putted their ways into or out of contention while courtesies were bestowed upon each equally. Minimally, there are golf claps. For former champs, there are hoots and hollers. For the golf celebs, there are the requisite shouts of get in the hole for every fucking swing (which are criminally annoying, especially on par 5 tee shots). And, of course, the players oblige with doffed caps and…well, it pretty much ends there.

Otherwise, the players are thrown by the slightest gallery* movement; they have the hearing of snow owls—stopping mid backswing because of the noise of a camera shutter 200 yards away; they can feel the breeze kick up from 4mph to 4.5mph and have to start their routine over…from the beginning.

Further, they actually have someone toting their shit for them from hole to hole. The visuals on this are terrible. I’ve never been a caddie, but I’ve known caddies. Caddies are kids with shitty summer jobs who schlep golf clubs (which cost more than what the caddies will make all summer) for assholes who get to take 4-hour lunch breaks on a Tuesday.

Now, I know that professional caddies are paid well, and they know their golf. They serve a real purpose. As I said, the visuals are terrible, especially when you see the leaderboard complete with the flags of player origins.

*

Portugal v. Denmark was as amazing as Netherlands v. Germany was disappointing. Outside of 5 minutes of play in the 2nd half, the Netherlands looked sleepy—not tired—they actually looked like they needed a team nap. Sweden v. Ukraine was interesting, though I missed the beginning and thought the bright yellow of the Ukraine squad was the familiar yellow of Sweden. I was surprised by there being a Swede named Shevchenko. Then I realized my mistake.

I missed Greece v. Russia but was delighted by the results (the Greeks could use some good news for a change). The French, sadly, took it to their hosts 2-0. Poland v. Russia, in what was a battle between the two most depressing national anthems (so many minor chords!), finished without a winner, though team members of both countries, in unison with their respective fans, sang every oppressive sounding word of the aforementioned anthems. Meanwhile, a three-way battle raged outside the Warsaw stadium between Russian fans and Polish fans, and those same fans versus the Polish police**.

I admittedly didn't watch (and couldn’t have watched had I wanted to) all the matches. But in each—so far, anyway—fan fervor is ceaseless and unbridled and unquestionably genuine.

*

The flags of the leaderboard read, with few exceptions, like a who’s who in Imperialist subjugators and subjugates: England, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Republic of South Africa, USA, and Australia. Sprinkled in the mix was a Swede, German, Korean, and Belgian, representing branches from a tree not rooted in British Imperialism. But this got me thinking about how foreign (pun alert!) it is to see athletes from places like RSA, Northern Ireland, or even Fiji (which, by the way, where the hell has Vijay Singh been?). And it’s not just one or two people from these places, the leaderboards of every PGA event are peppered with golfers from these countries. These countries are well represented amongst the list of major winners. And that’s why the caddies are an ugly reminder. That’s why I’ll always feel a disconnect from professional golfers. They are not like me. Most (Vijay Singh a notable exception) have lived highly privileged lives, attending golf academies, receiving new clubs at Christmas the way the rest of us receive a new pair of Levi’s, and they have other people do the heavy lifting. They can’t tolerate the slightest discomfort, turning peevish if someone in their periphery decides to scratch his nose at the wrong time.

I should note that, with full awareness, I don’t personally know any professional golfers. In fact, many seem like decent guys. But the spectacle that is a professional golf tournament is too often too off-putting for me to tolerate.

And then there’s Tiger Woods…

*

Not too long after the Euro 2012 tournament concludes, the London Olympics will begin. The grand marshal of the acceptable chauvinism parade, the Olympics represents a time when national pride is the point (all that nonsense about sportsmanship and tests of one’s self can go to hell; I want gold, and I want my country to win it). With the U.S. men’s soccer team unceremoniously sitting this one out (way to go, boys!), I’ll be forced once again to find rooting interests within my Northern European lineage in order to enjoy some Americanless soccer. I likely won’t watch all the games, but I’ll watch some. And though I’ll watch sans scarf, jersey and face paint, I’ll watch willingly, dreaming of the day the U.S. men’s team truly arrives on the world pitch.

*

I’ll forego the tiresome psychoanalysis of Tiger Woods. In fact, I won’t even comment on his U.S. Open play. I am one of those fair-weather fans who is more likely to tune in on a Sunday if Tiger is within striking distance. He’s the exemplar of golfing excellence for my generation. I appreciate that. My issue with Tiger has nothing to do with his poor weekend play at the Olympic Club. My real issue with Tiger goes back to the beginning of April at the Master’s.

The Augusta National Golf Club, as has been thoroughly reported, still does not allow women to be members. With its quaint Southern beauty (each of the 18 holes taking the name of flowering tree), Augusta’s Masters Tournament is the belle of the ball when it comes to the four majors. They admitted black members for the first time in 1990. Yes, that is correct. 1990.

Tiger, as has been pointed out, had a black father who firmly nudged his son into the game of golf. His influence on Tiger is not a matter for debate. And though Tiger’s childhood environment was not in league with that of most black athletes, there is the undeniable fact that Tiger is not like most of his competitors. Tiger has done a remarkable job of making his race a non-issue on the PGA tour. Even with the occasional taunts—like those of former Masters champ, Fuzzy Zoeller—Woods has been steadfast in making the game his only focus (the last couple of years being a particular—and at times, albatross-like—burden on him for reasons that have been too enthusiastically covered by sports and mainstream media alike).

Yet, Tiger’s race is part of his identity. He can’t simply hide behind the legacy of Jim Dent. Most people wouldn’t even know who that is. Dent’s best finish in a major was 34th at the PGA Championship. Jim Dent was not a threat to white dominance in the game of golf. In fact, he couldn’t even play in his hometown’s major tournament for most of his life***.

*

A new breed of hate has reared its ugly head in European football circles. Modest efforts to curb it can be seen in the Unite Against Racism signs along the midfield boards at Euro 2012. Hard economic times have been blamed for what many pass off as a mere pointed hooligany. I’m not sure what to make of it or what this says about the bubbling fires that always appear to be just under Europe’s surface. At least officials with some say have decided to act, if only in token gestures. Planting the seed of the correct message, to say the least, is better than burying your head in the sand trap.

*

Tiger has mostly (I say mostly because I’m sure there are still off-color comments made in clubhouses and galleries across the country…most assuredly in Augusta) removed the race debate from the game, and with the persistent successes of Japanese, Korean, and Spanish players, the diversity issue—as far as ethnicity—only further continues to be laid to rest. Tiger could, should he choose, take one badly needed and completely justified stand against Augusta National and boycott one year’s play at the Masters unless women are permitted membership.

This is not a call for women to be a part of the Masters Tournament (Michelle Wie stay away…as far as I know, you’re still not very good at golf). But the exclusivity of Augusta National reeks so poorly of the old aristocratic South that I can’t help but hate the Masters more and more each year. And when I start thinking about the old South, I start thinking about oppression, which hearkens back to America’s sullied years; which calls to mind apartheid in South Africa; which suggests the ugliness of the clashes of the Irish Republican Army and Ulster Defence Force; then British rule over Fiji; exiles to Australia (only to then adversely affect the aborigines); and so on and so on.

Besides, in the rehabilitation of Tiger’s image—most notably in the eyes of women—this would do his legacy as much good as winning another major. But he refuses to be a lightning rod for any criticism, even if that criticism is rooted in horribly archaic worldviews.

Regrettably, none of the other golfers care to take on the issue either. Just like the balls they strike, they’re looking for the path of least resistance.

*

Sometimes you have to consider the company you keep, and in terms of golf and soccer, if I’m to grab a couple of drinks in the clubhouse bar or the neighborhood pub, you can keep your Fresca. I’ll have me a pint of ale.

I may be the stereotypical American who prefers hockey, baseball, football and basketball, but there’s a certain ethos in soccer that I learn to respect more each year.

Golf remains a game for a different tax bracket.



*And what pretension that golfers have galleries, not crowds or audiences or fans, as though the spectators are attending a museum of moving sport.
** Good god, there is bad blood in that part of the world. There were even some German fans injured and/or arrested. This riot was just a quick French surrender away from being the biggest WWII reenactment ever.
*** Jim Dent was born in Augusta, Georgia.


-Kyle Wills

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

FANTASY. SPORTS. DEATH. RACE.

Fantasy.  FAHntasy.  Fantasy SPORTS.  Well, not all sports, just baseball and football.  You're not gonna catch me delving into the wooly and wild world of fantasy golf, which, like, what kind of heroin addict thinks that's a productive way to spend your time?  Not me, man.  But then again, I'm not a heroin addict, so maybe I'm in the wrong here.  It's possible.  At least feasible.  Anyways, yeah, I got some fantasy stuff to talk about, so sit tight and for CHRIST'S SAKE STOP CHEWING THAT TRAIL MIX WITH YOUR MOUTH OPEN!!!

FANTASY BASEBALL.  I'm in two leagues and as I write this I am in the playoffs in both.  Well, I'm currently getting BEAT LIKE AN ALCOHOLIC'S CHILD in both, to be more specific.  

Adrian Beltre, I hate you.  Joe Mauer, I hate you.  And the rest of you in both my teams: you are the biggest bunch of underachieving underwear skid marks known to man.  Seriously, Martin Prado, you are killing me.  Last year you were a beautiful rainbow of stats.  You made me dry hump ESPN Magazine and I DESPISE that magazine. 


But this year?  Not a chance in hell.  You know what?  The weird thing is, regardless of my angst, my teams really aren't that bad, just victims of bad luck.  Things can change.  Things can always change. 


(things are not going to change)


FANTASY FOOTBALL.  I had two drafts over the Labor Day weekend.  I am scared at the results.  I feel very confident in my teams which means they will both tank in spectacular fashion.  In my pay league I'm relying on the likes of Rashard Mendenhall and the resurgence of one Plaxico Burress to guide me into glory.  Mendenhall will most likely have a solid season but Burress is my sleeper this year.  He might be terrible.  He might be the saving grace of my year that will lead me to money money money.  I'm talking real money.  I'm talking about the kind of money that will buy me a Kindle with a little left over for a crystal meth festival. 


Basically I feel like I've been staring at the Yahoo Sports page non stop for the past three weeks.  I've been reading injury reports.  I've been looking at mock drafts.  I've been baseball stats and quality September call ups.  I feel like a machine.  I sports machine.  Insert reference here. 


I will be updating this blog with my fantasy results throughout the baseball playoffs and football season.  I'm going to be letting you into my lair.  You will see my insanity.  You will be sad.  You will be manic.  You will be putting me on your 'to kill' list. 


I'm not scared.  You shouldn't be either. 

Onward

-Terrence


Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Sure It's Been A While, But You Weren't Paying Attention Anyways



Listen, I know.  I know I've been AWOL for almost three months.  I know that this blog has been sitting here like some kind of abandoned school house, walls lined with spider webs and crow's nests.  I get it.  You don't have to remind me. 

What I can say in my defense is that I...

A.)  Moved from New York City to Columbus, Ohio.  That's right, I'm back in the Midwest.  You know how hard that was?  I drove ten goddamn hours with all of my belongings.  Ten.  Hours.  That's brutal, especially when all of your music is packed and you're forced to listen to talk radio for the duration.  I hit a part of Pennsylvania where Rush Limbaugh was on three different stations.  THREE DIFFERENT STATIONS.  Listening to Rush Limbaugh is like having a ten year old drop kick your family jewels with his Little League spikes.  It starts off painful but eventually becomes excrutiating and you are forced to fall down and drool mindlessly for an hour afterwards.  Anyways.  Yeah.  All my shit, in an enlarged minivan.  It sucked. 

B.)  I had to get a job.  I got a job!  That's right.  When you move away from a city while you're living on unemployment, you really want to find a real job when you reach your destination.  So now I have a job.  I won't really be talking about that job here, just know that I'm gainfully employed and that I have been absent from the blogosphere because I have REAL PAID WORK TO DO. 

C.)  I had to find an apartment.  I got an apartment!  It's so fucking cheap it's not even fair.  You people in New York are suckers.  The amount I'm paying now for a one bedroom apartment is what I paid to live with three dudes in New York.  Suckers, the lot of ya. 

So yeah, get off my ass about this stuff, I needed to get my ducks in a row. 

Now. 

The Reds. 

Has there been a more disappointing team in baseball this year?  They are inconsistent, their manager (Dusty Baker) can't ever seem to decide which lineup to throw out there and we're on the VERGE OF GETTING SWEPT BY THE PIRATES. 

Can I just say that the resurgence of the Pirates is, for the most part, a fluke?  The NL Central is the weakest division in baseball, hands down.  No one in this division has a chance to win the World Series.  Not one.  Not the Cardinals, not the Brewers.  Zip.  Zilch.  Zero. 

The Reds could have still have a shot to take the division if they make a trade or two, but it's hard to really say if that will be the solution.  For Ubaldo Jiminez save this team and this season?  Will Ryan Ludwick be the spark that starts the blaze?  Probably not.  They need a real left fielder, not some weird circle of idiots.  Heisey is the closest thing they've got to legitimacy out there, but hilariously he's a better pinch hitter than a starter. 

The only hopeful things to take out of this season so far are the rise of Zach Cozart and the resurgence of Dontrelle Willis.  One could only hope that this is the beginning of a new career for Willis, who absolutely deserves only the best that life has to offer. 

Anyways, let's move on to other things.  Such as...

THE NFL LOCKOUT!!!

I haven't really followed this too closely.  When rich people get in a tizzy with one another I tend to look the other way.  My only hope is that Roger Goodell get's pancake blocked by someone.  Can we make that happen?  I mean, that greedy fucktard deserves to be hospitalized.  Someone get Jeff Saturday on the phone.

THE NBA LOCKOUT!!!

Again, do not really care.  Just find a way to play the games, assholes.  As a quick aside:

Was there anything more satisfying than watching LeBron James lose in the NBA Finals?  Fuck you, LeBron, fuck you with a hot iron.  I hope he gets in a car accident and never plays again.

What else.

Christ, I don't know.  Hockey?  It's the off season.  Whaddya want me to say?  Women's World Cup?  The US women had their chance and pulled a Mama Cass.  Golf?  Nascar?  I don't care about those two sports.

Ben Wills is getting married!  Hopefully he'll have something to say about that soon.

I'll really try to keep up with this on a regular basis, but honestly, if you want updates, email me and I'll make you an administrator.  Then you can write your own articles!!!

Onward.

-Terrence Adams 

Thursday, April 7, 2011

JIM TRESSEL KEEPS TRYING TO SEXT ME, TWITTERVERSE, BASEBALL AND WHY UCONN SHOULD NOT BE PROUD OF THEIR CHAMPIONSHIP WIN

It's been a while, me droogies, so let's get right into the jelly-filled portion of the donut. 

Jim Tressel is a cheater.  You know what that makes him, right?  You guessed it, that makes Jimmy Tressel a legitimate coach in NCAA football.  You're a real boy now, Jim! 

Honestly, anyone who was shocked that Tressel lied to save his own ass must also believe that the Easter Bunny is real and that God exists and rides unicorns to work.  The NCAA, especially when it comes to football, will always be brimming with secret monetary kickbacks, dastardly deeds and just plain lowdown actions.  The fact that Tressel got busted just reinforces my belief that none of these coaches are clean in any capacity.  So yeah, suspend him and erase the accomplishments of last season, it won't change anything.  Just ask Auburn and USC.

NEXT

I am crushing this Twitter stuff.  Absolutely owning it.  As we speak, yours truly is kicking 100 followers in the ass.  It may not be at Kanye levels, but it's something and sometimes something is better than nothing.  Plus hashtags are fantastic. 

NEXT

Anyone notice that baseball started?  I KNOW I DID!  I went so far as to go to Opening Day last week for my beloved (and 5-0) Cincinnati Reds!  I got loaded with a bunch of Reds fans for the first time in almost eight years.  It was beautiful.  I will say that the Brewers would probably have won at least one game of that series had they switched back to their royal blue pinstriped uniforms.  Those things were amazing.  They were truly meant to be worn by someone who is on the verge of tossing his lunch due to beer bonging the entire Miller factory.  The Astros, unfortunately, are dogshit regardless of which uniform they're rolling into in the morning.  They suck.

This MLB season is going to be interesting.  Early signs indicate that whereas last year was the (ugh) "Year of the Pitcher", this year will shape up to be the (ugh) "Year of the Hitter".  So far their have been over twenty blown saves across the league.  Twenty.  That's bad.  That means that there's a lack of quality closers out there, that bullpens are stripped down and that injuries are hurting everyone.  Of course, we won't really know how things are panning out until about the thirty game mark for most teams, but right now you can bet your bottom dollar that the Red Sox will get better and that the Pirates will get worse. 

NEXT

Anyone catch that college basketball championship game?  You know, the one that had me thinking that I was watching a New York Liberty/Los Angeles Sparks game?  Butler and UConn should give those fans their money back.  That was maybe the worst display by two supposed "champion" teams I've seen in quite some time.  Kemba Walker doesn't understand the haters that are ripping him on his Twitter.  Well Kemba, let me tell you why people are hating on you: 

1. Your team should've been beat and didn't deserve to win
2. Your team would've been beat by anyone who could shoot even thirty percent during a game
3. You entertained zero people outside of Connecticut, which is a state full of rich know it alls, criminals (Hartford) and worst of all....Yankees fans. 

Also, Butler missed more shots than an anxious college freshman during rush week.  Rimshot.

NEXT

Well, I'm in Ohio now.  I moved here.  New York City can suck it. 

Onward.

- Terrence Adams

Thursday, February 24, 2011

A New Baseball Season Is Upon Us, I've Been Horribly Lazy


It's February 24th, 2011 and I haven't updated this site in more than two months.  There's an explanation (well, multiple explanations) for this lag, but going into it (them) would just take you, fair reader, down the rabbit hole of massive, eye fluttering depression.  Just know that it's not you, it's me.

Let's recap a few things that have happened in the sports world since last we jawed:


1.  The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl

Yeah, I know, there are plenty of folks out there who think that this was a fantastic game.  An instant classic.   I don't buy it.  The referees were a little too one sided and that first half was a little too much of an abomination on the Pittsburgh Steelers' sideline for this to be anything more than a game that was a shit show up until the last five minutes, where it got mildly interesting.  Would I be saying the same thing if the Steelers had won?  Yes, because I hate the Steelers.  I just happen to hate the Packers more.


2.  There were a million trades and signings in Major League Baseball

Zack Greinke is now a Brewer, Cliff Lee is a Phillie once again, Adrian Gonzalez is a Red Sock and Carl Crawford is a...well, a Red Sock as well.  Those are the big moves that happened this off season, but there were plenty of smaller ones that may have serious impact on this upcoming season.  What's the biggest one, you ask?  I'm gonna go ahead and say that the White Sox's acquisition of Adam Dunn is going to catapult them into the front runner role in the AL Central.  The man was born to be a DH, and as a DH he will no longer be a logjam on the defensive end of things.  More on baseball in a minute, but let's finish this recap first.


3.  Carmelo Anthony is a New York Knick

Last night 'Melo made his debut for the Knicks and dropped 27 points on 10-25 shooting on the Bucks.  Not bad, but not great either.  The more important debut was that of his trade partner Chauncey Billups, who's 21 points and 8 assists instantly made Knicks fans forget the name Felton ever existed.  I'm of the mind that we won't know the quality of this trade for some time.  The Knicks gave up quite a bit of their young core of players (not to mention $3 million) to get Carmelo, and the rumors that Isiah Thomas was the ringmaster behind the deal does not bode well for the franchise's future.  However, for at least one evening, the trade paid quality dividends.  The Knicks will make the playoffs this year and may escape the first round, but the big ol' elephant-sized question in the room will, for me at least, be whether or not they couldn't have done the same thing without making this trade.  My guess: probably.


4.  I have become an unabashed Twitter addict

I'm live blogging everything from award shows to random thoughts that come to my head at four in the morning.  I cannot be stopped.  Yes, the twitter updates will relate to sports on a regular basis, but I've given up the ghost on only tweeting about these things.  I'm going to be live blogging the Oscars this Sunday, for Christ's sake.  Follow me @Victrola_Cola_1.  And yes, I am a total fucking shill.


Okay, Let's roll forward like a fat guy in a potato sack race, shall we?

Baseball is soooo close.  Can you feel it?  I can feel it.  This winter has been brutal in New York City.  The sky has shit out more snow than Lindsay Lohan on a Sunday morning and at times it's been so cold that I've been forced to stop my testicles from booking plane tickets to California while I'm asleep more than once.  Any decent American will look forward to baseball season just because it's baseball season, but this year there are so many interesting story lines that will keep even the marginal sports fans' attention.  Let's name some:


1.  The Phillies may have one of the best rotations in MLB history

I'm not gonna mince words, I hate the Phillies.  That being said, is there anyone in either league that will be able to beat this rotation?  Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt are brutal competition.  You're gonna see a lot of analysts pick them to win the World Series this year and I can't rightly blame them.  The only thing that can beat the Phillies is themselves at this point.  Last year, their offense took a two month vacation in the middle of the season, and that very well may be the case once again this year.  The only difference is that they'll have four pitchers in their rotation that can hold a one run lead almost every time out.


2.  The Brewers are the most improved team in baseball

The addition of Zack Greinke almost immediately makes the Brew Crew the best team in the NL Central this year.  I don't like saying that.  I'm a Reds fan, but how can you talk shit about a team that added a bona fide ace to their staff and still retain one of the better offenses in baseball.


3.  That being said, the Cincinnati Reds are still something to reckon with

There are always going to be plenty of 'ifs' with this team until they reel off two or three winning seasons in a row.  This year the 'ifs' reside in the infield, the starting rotation and the middle relief.  Paul Janish may be the starter of the future for the Redlegs, but the organization showed only marginal faith in him when they signed Edgar Renteria to be his back-up.  All the Renteria signing should mean to Janish is that if he has a bad first month or two, his starting job will be a thing of the past.

The starting rotation will most likely be Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey to start the season, but that could change immediately depending on the joint performances of Volquez and Bailey.  Volquez has yet to show consistency since coming back from Tommy John surgery and though receiving the opening day start is quite a vote of confidence, there is no guarantee that his job will remain at the top of the rotation through the All-Star break, especially with Johnny Cueto quickly becoming an ace in his own right.  This may be Homer Bailey's last stand with the Reds and one has to assume he knows it.  Mike Leake won't be hanging around for long in the minor leagues and Homer has to realize that he's the weakest link thus far.   

For better or worse, Francisco Cordero will be the Reds' closer once again this year.  For better or worse, Nick Masset will be the 8th inning man, most likely sharing time with Aroldis Chapman.   When Masset is being used, Chapman will most likely be the seventh inning man along with a myriad of different guys.  In that group you're definitely going to see Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray and Jared Burton.  You might also be seeing Dontrelle Willis and Jose Arrendo.  It's almost like there are just too many guys to fill a small number of available spots.  If there's someone to root for, it's gotta be Willis, who is an amazingly great person who has had such an unbelievably tough time getting back to his All-Star caliber performances of years past.


4.  The Red Sox are probably going to destroy everyone

I almost puked after typing that.  There's part of me that wishes that Bud Selig would just put the Yankees and Red Sox in their own division and let them hash it out all season long to make it into the playoffs so that we only have to see one of those teams with post season patches on their ball caps.  Kind of like a 162-game series play-in-game.  Anyways, yeah, the Red Sox got Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and will most likely smoke everyone else in the AL East without blinking an eye.  So be it.


5.  But, The Orioles might be an interesting sleeper this year

The additions of Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee to a lineup that already includes Nick Markakis Brian Roberts and Matt Wieters will make the O's offense something to reckon with, even if Luke Scott is batshit insane.   They're gonna have to score a fuck ton of runs though, because their pitching staff will once again be one of the worst in baseball.  Outside of Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz (who should probably be the opening day starter but isn't), the Orioles have a starting rotation that wouldn't even be competitive on most minor league teams.


6.  The odds of the San Francisco Giants repeating are actually not too bad

Their amazing pitching staff is intact and for the most part the offense will be pretty much the same.  You really can't count them out, especially when you consider they're still going to be coming out of the shithole that is the National League West.


7.  Miguel Cabrera's alcoholism will either make the Detroit Tigers better or sink them

And yes, it is alcoholism.  The man needs to either take a season off and go to rehab legitimately or retire...and go to rehab.  Cabrera shouldn't be punished by Selig, but he should be pushed into a situation where he is forced to get help.  So far his teammates have rallied around him, but through a 162-game season, this story is bound to wear on them.  Only time will tell how the Tigers will respond to the pressure of being in a negative spotlight because of one player.


8.  The Pujols conundrum is only going to get worse

Adam Wainwright's season being done is not only disastrous for this year's St. Louis Cardinals, it will also be disastrous for next year's and the year after that.  Any hope the Cards had of bringing Albert Pujols back died with the fraying of Wainwright's ligament.  It wasn't looking too hopeful as it was, considering the inexplicable incapability of St. Louis' ownership to make any legitimate effort at a contract extension this off season.   How do you not even make an effort?  Anyways, Pujols will put up his usual numbers and will be a huge trade name at the deadline while he waits patiently to get a huge paycheck at season's end.  I'm not gonna say that I'm gonna enjoy watching the Cardinals fail.  But I'm totally gonna enjoy watching the Cardinals fail.


9.  Bryce Harper is gonna get called an asshole a whole lot

He may be an outstanding prospect, but Bryce Harper is such an unbelievable asshat that he may make everyone forget that fact.  This kid has his head stuck farther up his ass than O.J. Simpson on the trail of the real killers.  He may hit the ball a ton, but he's gonna have to learn how to be humble if he's gonna get into the good graces of real baseball fans.


10.  I'm moving back to Ohio

So you guys are all gonna get some first hand accounts of what it's like to be at Reds games this season.  I'm psyched.  You're psyched.  We're all psyched.


Okay, that's all I got.  Once again, I'll be live blogging the Oscars with my buddy Kevin Elliott over at World of Wumme as well as on my twitter account (@Victrola_Cola_1) this Sunday.  Tune in for that.  I'll probably make some great sports references and use colorful language to a fault.  Fuckers.

Onward

- Terrence Adams





 

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

The NFL Sucks This Year, So Lets Talk About My Favorite Holiday Movies

Did anyone catch that Arizona Cardinals/San Francisco 49ers Monday night game?  What a shit show.  It was bad enough that everyone in the booth spent the majority of the broadcast sherkin' their jerkins over next Monday night's Jets/Patriots matchup but when you add in the depressing reality of how far the Cardinals franchise has fallen since their Super Bowl run it made watching the proceedings tantamount to witnessing someone etch their name into a wooden beam prior to hanging themselves. 

This has been the resounding feeling for me throughout this NFL season.  My team -- the Bengals -- are back to being a franchise that can't even lose in an interesting fashion, the Patriots are back to their "flys fucking" offensive schemes, Chris Johnson is legitimately human, Michael Vick can't even make the Eagles worth watching...I mean the list goes on.  The only team that's at all worth rooting for is the Atlanta Falcons, because Matt Ryan is the next Peyton Manning and Roddy White is maybe the most underrated playmaker in the league.  Plus they have cool uniforms. 

Also, can I just quickly say that my fantasy football team is a goddamn nightmare?  I'd like to personally thank Vernon Davis, Brandon Marshall, Zach Miller, Wes Welker and the Arizona Cardinals defense (bye week pick-up and subsequent drop) for roshambo-ing me into a fifth place spot and an almost definite first round playoff ousting.  I'd also like to personally tell Ben Wills to eat a dick for picking up Peyton Hillis.  You son of a bitch and your bullshit luck. 

Anyways, in an effort to take my mind off of this borefest I've decided -- in the name of the holiday season -- to rank my five favorite holiday movies of all time.  There's no real order to this, just five movies that I enjoy watching whenever this time of year rolls around.

THE BEST GODDAMN HOLIDAY MOVIES EVER 

5. HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS
When I was a kid going through puberty there were two movies that gave me my first crushes.  One was Batman Returns with Michelle Pfeiffer as Catwoman.  She wore skin-tight patent leather for an hour and a half and purred a lot, I was mesmerized.  The other was Home For The Holidays with Holly Hunter.  It was those legs!  Holy moly!  And the fact that she was super pretty and down to earth and cursed and stuff!  Anyways, I loved this movie for her down to earth hotness. 

In recent viewings,however, I've come to love everything else about this movie (except for Dylan McDermott, because fuck that pretty boy).  First of all, you've got Anne Bancroft just straight up owning the screen.  Second of all, you've got a quite obviously HOPPED UP Robert Downey Jr. acting circles around everyone without ever really trying.  You have to wonder how fucked up he was during the shooting of this movie.  I've read stories, but you know it was probably way worse than what people are letting on.  Third of all, Downey's character was a gay man who had just gotten married and his parents accepted him and were only angry that he refused to let them to close to his personal life.  You also had a single mom story line that at times had very dark overtones.  The only drawback to this movie is the bullshit copout romantic comedy ending that kind of cheapens the whole thing.  Dylan McDermott didn't need to be there at all and only served as eye candy for all the female viewers. 

There's some priceless one liners and over all this movie makes you both miss your family and loathe them at the same time.  Annual watching is expected and deserved. 

4. HOME ALONE
First of all, can you believe that this movie was made into a Nintendo game?  I totally forgot about that.  I remember renting it maybe one time and having the worst time ever.  I always hated the fact that Nintendo pretty much just started putting out complete dogshit in its later years.  For every RC Pro-Am there was a Battletoads, and that should never be forgotten. 

However, as far as the Home Alone movie is concerned, if you don't at least feel the need to watch it every year then you're not really human and were never a child with fantasies about being the ultimate hero.  I gotta be honest, I still laugh when Joe Pesci gets shot in the nuts with that bb gun.  Totally worth it every time.  I could honestly do without the overt Christian overtones, but whatever, it kinda works considering that there's so much violence in the movie.  Also, you can't go wrong with a movie starring any SCTV alumi, especially when one of those alums is John Candy.

3. THE REF
Before Bad Santa there was The Ref.  This was made back when Denis Leary wasn't so concerned with being taken seriously as a dramatic actor.  Also, this was before Kevin Spacey was doing the things that made him Kevin Spacey.  It's a film full of curse words and hilarious interplay between the main characters.  Also, it doesn't copout at the end like Home For The Holidays did.  These characters change, but only at gunpoint.  Watching this makes me miss the days when Denis Leary was purely known as a rant comic.  His talents overflow in this movie and I always seem to catch a new joke every time I watch it.  My favorite line?  When Leary is talking to Spacey's evil bitch of a mother, he has this quip about her dead husband, "Your husband ain't dead, lady.  He's hidin'."  I've been waiting my whole life to use that line without being punched in the face.   

2. NATIONAL LAMPOON'S CHRISTMAS VACATION 
Here lies the comedic career of Chevy Chase.  Holy shit did he ever go downhill from this movie.  Whether it be Vegas Vacation or Snow Day, Chevy Chase's last hurrah as a comedic actor was always going to be this movie.  The timing is amazing, the adult themes are very adult and that fucking house lighting shit is amazing.  It's disheartening that the National Lampoon's franchise hasn't made a film of this kind of quality in so long.  I mean, really?  We really have to sit through Van Wilder?  That shit is the same reason Mad Magazine lost its luster.  Comedy films lost the ability to be both intelligent and nasty at the same time.  Ugh.  Anyways, this is a Christmas staple for me and deserves a top five spot.  

1. DIE HARD
  
Die Hard is not only the best Christmas movie ever made, but it's also the best action movie ever made.  Period.  I could watch this movie and only this movie for the rest of my life and I'd be entertained until my last breath.  John McClain is an iconic figure in American cinema.  Alan Rickman is the best villain ever and...well...Yippee Kay Yay Mother Fucker!  
So there you go, a holiday movie list.  It's better than whatever the hell is going on in the NFC West, right?  Right.  

Let me also say that college basketball is shaping up to be very, very competitive this year, especially in the Big Ten.  

Let me also also also say that Cam Newton is a goddamn bitch.  I hope Oregon wipes the floor with Auburn.  I also hope that Ohio State makes the Sugar Bowl.  

I also hope that all of you fine folks have a nice holiday season.  

Onward.  

-Terrence

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Burnt Hands and Cold Feet, Part 2


Okay, so I'll let you in on how I'm choosing the writing order of the divisions. I wrote all six divisions down, put them in a box, shook the box, and let my cat, Todd, dive into the box and whatever division he comes out with is the one I write about. The only reason I bring this up is because it has created a major problem in that he is attacking me every time I get near anything resembling a box. So, to a feline, a laptop is similar enough to warrant a high alert reaction. As I am typing this, I have cuts on my wrists, bite marks one both hands, feet, and ankles, and am living in fear every moment. I have created a monster. My dog on the other hand, is barking at everything that passes across our back door. Seeing that it is autumn, and the leaves are being blown by the wind, I am finding it hard to achieve any semblance of peace and/or quiet. Where am I going with this? Fair question. Nowhere. Just a reminder that it is fall, which means Hot Stove action. Oh, and never give a cat executive privileges.

Today I drop it like it's hot on....the AL Central!!!

Chicago White Sox

I feel the need to always be up front and let you know that this is my team. I have been a White Sox fan since birth, and I am proud of it. So if it seems as if this is a more lengthy or in-depth analysis of the Sox (and these are the real Sox); it is.

This is the first offseason of the Kenny Williams era that Sox fans have absolutely no idea what Kenny is going to do. Usually, Kenny does something that is totally unexpected, but he tends to go into the offseason with some sort of plan and just happens to change it last minute. This year, no one can honestly say they know what Kenny Williams is going to do. Hell, it seems as if Kenny Williams doesn't know what Kenny Williams is going to do.

This team is teetering dangerously between a legit contender and in need of a "rebuild". Kenny has always maintained his desire to try to contend every single year, but this year there is more emphasis on such a declaration. Kenny cannot waiver this year. He can go young if he wants, and Sox fans will, at least for the most part, understand and get behind a young core of players that include Gordan Beckham, John Danks, Dayan Viciedo, and Chris Sale. But, if he decides this team is to contend in 2011, then he must go all in. There can be no in-between moves that keeps the White Sox solid for this year, next year, and the year after that. Chicago fans understand an 85 win team and lightening in a bottle won't make you consistent division favorites now or in the years to come. So, the biggest decision of this offseason for the White Sox is simple...what direction do we go?

If Kenny decides to go young, there won't be a lot of drama. A.J Pierzynski...he gone. Paul Konerko...he gone. Bobby Jenks...well...he was gone at about midseason last year.

But if Kenny decides to go for broke, and try to make a splash; well then, all Hell could break loose.

I firmly believe that Kenny Williams is going to take a long, hard look at Adam Dunn. Dunn represents the answer to the one glaring hole on the White Sox roster last year...left-handed power in the middle of the order.

The problem is that Dunn is already leery of signing on the South Side in part because he already knows the letters D and H would be attached to his name quite often. So, the real chances of Kenny landing his "big fish" via free agency goes out the window (assuming they have zero chance of signing Carl Crawford). So, then, Kenny does what he does best, which is wheel and deal.

About 2 weeks before Jake Peavy's muscle ripped from bone and Peavy's season was ended I had the feeling that Gavin Floyd was not long for a White Sox uniform. And to be honest, my feelings haven't wavered one bit on this subject. The fact that the Chi-Sox are trying to extend John Danks leads me to believe that are looking to shore up some young pitching to make some other young (or fairly young) and affordable pitching expendable. Enter Gavin Floyd. In 2009, Floyd signed a 4 year, $15 million extention, with a club option for 2013. This means affordable pitching under team control, and this is something a lot of teams are willing to part with bats for.

A Floyd based package for Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez is not at all out of the question. But it's not just Floyd I expect to be a part of these deals, it's also Carlos Quentin. The Sox have to make a decision about whether Quentin replicate his 2008 MVP type performace, or if they should deal him while the coals are still hot. One of Williams' best traits is that he always seems to know when to pull the trigger on a player at the right time. And here, I can very easily see Kenny parting with Quentin in order to get a big return.

Also, don't count out something happening with any of the trio in Los Angeles. Kenny Williams has long been linked to Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Andre Either. It would not be a surprise to see Kenny maybe package Floyd, Quentin, and a prospect to land Matt Kemp, who has begun to wear out his welcome with the Dodgers. A fat chance in Hell? Yes. But it does kind of make sense.

One other name to watch via Chi-Sox trades: Colby Rasmus. Not sure exactly what St. Louis would want (Quentin would look fantastic hitting behind Albert Pujols), but the rumors have been swirling.

The White Sox would surely love to land the likes of Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre actually would fit the need of both a bat and glove desperately needed at the hot corner, but both figure to be out of Chicago's price range. The Sox seem to be posturing themselves for a run at Adam Dunn, and if that fails, well then let the bargain hunting begin. Adam Laroche would almost surely be targeted. Aubrey Huff, Lyle Overday, and Carlos Peña would all fit the bill as cheaper than Dunn left handed bats that could be plugged into the middle of the order. Johnny Damon is another possibility, but I just don't see the need of having another outfielder on the roster who doesn't have a lot of power and can't throw a lick (see: Juan Pierre). The only outfield left-handed option I could honestly foresee is Brad Hawpe, but that all depends on whether he is going to want an incentive based deal, which Williams would be more likely to suggest, or get paid upfront.

The only thing that is for sure, or at least close to it, is that Bobby Jenks is gone, and Rafeal Soriano is the main target. The Sox could let Matt Thornton become the starter, and try to fill his spot with someone along the lines of a Jason Frasor or Matt Guerrier.

Like I said earlier, Williams could go absolutely any direction this offseason and it would be hard to say one didn't see it coming.All anyone does know is that it is going to be a circus on the south side of Chicago this winter.

Cleveland Indians

Talk about an organizational mess. I haven't seen a mess this bad since I saw Taylor Swift's face in one of those Proactiv commercials.

Two of their best players can't stay healthy (Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore), they have the only closer in the Majors who when scouts say "He's lucky if he can keep it in the park," they are talking about the location of his fastball, their "best" prospect, Matt LaPorta, suddenly morphed into Michael Brantley, and their best player, Shin Soo Choo needs to win gold at the Asian Games just so his "gun" from right field is his arm and not a firearm the Korean military gave him.

Cleveland is not at all enjoying this rebuilding process, especially since they've watched former aces CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee make World Series appearances in back to back World Series. There is no sign of this team getting any better this offseason, but they could, and should be bold in some of their moves.

The Indians need bullpen pitching worse than Robin Williams needs a wax. Their bullpen was inconsistent and misses far too few bats to warrant the number of times they miss the strike zone. Big names won't find themselves on the Indians radar, but Mike MacDougal and John Rauch would give the Indians some relief as well as cost them nothing in terms of giving up picks.

Where Cleveland could get real creative is in their starting rotation. Fausto Carmona and Justin Masteson are two very good arms at the top of the rotation. If Cleveland throws in a name or two like Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Jarrod Washburn, or Vincente Padilla, then the rotation will at least be competitive. But a guy I see making a lot of sense would be someone like Aaron Harang. He most likely will be made available by the Reds (club option), and he is a guy who at one time was a top 20 pitcher in the NL. It might be worth a look to see if he has anything left in the tank.

As far as position players, expect them to only sign guys who are seeking opportunities to show they still have a lot left. Eric Chavez could be a real option here. Cleveland needs a 3rd baseman and Chavez was at one time one of the better 3rd basemen in the league. Chavez has recently showed a real interest in making a return to the field full time, and somewhere like Cleveland gives him a real opportunity.

Besides that, expect it to be very quiet in Cleveland this winter...that is until LeBron comes back into town.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are probably the most frustrating team in this division. On paper, they always seem as if they should be a front-runner for the division, or at least be in the race until the last day. The problem is, that's on paper. In 2009 when the Tigers were in the race until the final day, but they went ahead and blew a significant division lead and lost the division to the Twins in the end. Detroit is the consummate underachievers of the AL Central.

The problem with the organization is I find that Dave Dombrowski seems to want to make a big splash every offseason, but he sacrifices filling several of the teams holes in place of the 1 big piece. The Tigers have been rumored to be heavy after Adam Dunn, and while the addition of Dunn would surely give the Tigers the best 3-4 combo in the AL with Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers really don't need a big bat with a less than desired glove.

Where would they play Dunn? Would they platoon him at 1B and DH with Miguel Cabrera? Would they actually put him in that spacious outfield at Comerica Park? These questions are important, and all the further evidence that they should focus on the other big bats available this offseason, such as Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, and Adrian Beltre.

In my opinion, Crawford would make the biggest impact for Detroit, giving them a 5-tool player out in left field that could hit 2nd in the batting order behind Austin Jackson or hit 3rd in front of Miguel Cabrera. The intriguing thing about bringing either Martinez, Werth, and Beltre is that they would finally give Cabrera some real protection in the order. Dombrowski will have to figure out what is most important to this offense, and then how to supplement the rest of his needs in the line-up with mid leve free agents.

The Tigers' real challenge will be trying to fortify a pitching staff that has been marred by injury and inconsistency. They came to terms with Joaquin Benoit yesterday, which is a major move because Joel Zumaya has been one arm injury after the next. Benoit gives the Tigers a much needed arm in the back end of the bullpen, but I wouldn't be so content just to stop there if I was Detroit's GM. Adding someone else like Aaron Heilman or Mike MacDougal might go a long way to help ensure that this bullpen stays effective.

The starting staff, on the other hand, is the model of "looks good on paper" failures. Their rotation seems to have quality arms throughout, with Verlander being the clear cut ace of the staff, but the issue is that they can't seem to get enough consistency from guys like Armando Galarraga and Rick Porcello. Trying to bring in an innings eater like John Garland, who knows the benefits of pitching in a large ballpark, could prove beneficial and provide insurance if Porcello or Galarraga don't cut it in 2011.

I don't expect any major moves to their rotation for 2011, which would be a mistake, but as we have seen from the Tigers over the last few years, they are accustomed to making big moves turn into big mistakes. I don't see this winter being much different.

Kansas City Royals

A perennial basement dweller in the AL Central, the Royals are seeing no light at the end of the tunnel this offseason. They made a strong move to acquire Vin Mazzaro and Justing Marks from Oakland, but they got rid of quite possibly their best all around position player in David DeJesus in the deal. And to make matters worse, they are listening to offers for Zach Greinke, so any chance of competing in the next few years is becoming seemingly more fiction than fact.

Gil Meche has been a disappointment for the Royals, and they have made some moves to go younger in their rotation, trying to replicate the success of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. They don't have the pieces that the Rays had in 2008, but they are at least trying to make their small payroll work to the best of its abilities.

As far as any major moves, it will be more export than import. The Royals are sellers every year, and this offseason could be their most crippling clearance sale to date. Whether or not Kansas City gets anyone to give the return they want for Greinke is yet to be seen, but regardless of what the get back, it will still be a tough pill to swallow to get rid of the face of that franchise.

The Royals will merely be in the market for guys who simply couldn't sign anywhere else and could help benefit the development of the young players on the roster. They could be a landing spot for someone like Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang or any other arms that are looking to resurrect careers for a bargain price, but even the likelyhood of that seems minute for Kansas City.

It's kind of sad that George Brett is still the biggest star in the park any time he shows up to a Royals game. Kansas City will do nothing to change this perception this winter. They just better hope that this winter brings enough cold to freeze Hell. Then, and only then, will they have a chance in 2011.

Minnesota Twins

Does it even matter what moves this team makes anymore. Every time they lose a player to injury or free agency, there is another player in the organization just waiting to step in and produce. The Twins are the best model of what an organization truly is. And being a White Sox fan, this is annoyingly impressive.

Last year the Twins landed themselves a bargain gem with Jim Thome, and they are hoping to retain his services even though, while the sentiment is mutual, the price so far has not been. The one thing the Twins weren't lacking last year was left handed power. With Thome, Kubel, Mauer (I will count doubles power as power), and before he got knocked out for the season with a concussion, Justin Morneau. And with guys like Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, and Danny Valencia, this team's offense is no need of an immediate makeover. The starting rotation, well, that's another story.

Francisco Liriano established himself as a legitimate ace who has fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery a few years ago, so depth might be more important than big names, but Minnesota could find themselves going after some of the biggern name pitchers on the market anyway. You can pretty much count the Twins out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but Jorge De La Rosa should be someone they at least test the market on. If he signs elsewhere, then pitchers like Brad Penny and Kevin Millwood have some real attraction. The key, though, to the Twins staff, is retaining Carl Pavano. Since Pavano became a Twin, he's been both consistent and a horse, pitching 221 innings last year. If they can retain Pavano, add another quality arm, and keep everyone healthy, Minnesota would become a real AL World Series contender.

The key to the Twins offseason is more patchwork than big fish. If Thome and Orlando Hudson, both free agents, cut ties with the Twins, expect the Twins to make moves on someone like Jason Werth. And if Werth proves to be too pricey, then Vlad Guerrero or Magglio Ordonez could be adequately priced bats to plug in the line-up.

With Matt Guerrier and John Rauch both free agents, and Joe Nathan's timetable for a return still uncertain, they Twins will have to keep tabs on their pen to make sure it doesn't get decimated this offseason. They would most likely prefer to retain Rauch and Guerrier, but if they defect, then Minnesota's target could be J.J. Putz. Not only would it give them more insurance by bringing in another possible closer, and a great 8th inning arm at the least, it would also hurt their AL Central rival, the Chicago White Sox.

Whatever the Minnesota Twins decide to do this offseason, one would be smart to put money down that things will work out well in Minnesota. If they happen to make any big splashes, then you might as well punch their ticket to the ALCS, where they will promptly get swept by the New York Yankees.


-Ben Wills




Sunday, November 14, 2010

Burnt Hands and Cold Feet: Hot Stove Talk as I Look at Each Division in Baseball and Their Offseason Potential


Baseball is the best sport in the world because its offseason if often as riveting, if not more, as the actual season. The NFL's offseason is a lot of guys past their prime looking for 2nd chances, the NHL has 34 year old players getting 14 year deals, and the NBA is more or less guys changing teams just because they like the prospects of their jersey sales in that city. But Major League Baseball has by far the most exciting and meaningful downtime. So over the course of the next few days, I will be taking a look into each of the MLB's 6 divisions, and looking at what each team should do over the next 3 months.

First up....the AL West!!!!

Los Angeles Angels:

This team has enjoyed dominance over this division, taking the top spot 5 of the last 7 years. 2010 was a strange year for Los Angeles as they were riddled with injuries and inconsistent play, but it will mostly be known for how they postured themselves very well for 2011 by acquiring Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was a bold move for a team that was as far out of the race as L.A. was at the time, but it was smart. L.A. gave themselves a top line pitcher who is under team control through 2013 to go along with Jered Weaver, Joel Pinero, Ervin Santana, and Scott Kazmir to form a pretty formidable starting 5 rotation.

So L.A. will most likely look to add a bat such as Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre. It seems as though L.A. has finally given up hope that Brandon Wood will ever amount to what they once thought he would be, and Beltre would be able to not only give them some pop in the middle of the order, but Beltre is also a slick fielder over at the hot corner. Crawford would be the even bigger fish providing the Angels with several different lineup options with just his bat alone. Both will be pricey, but L.A. has money to spend and an owner who won't shy away from spending money if he thinks it will be well spent.

The Angels must also use some of their available money on bullpen arms. Los Angeles, who once had one of the most dominant bullpens in the game with Francisco Rodriguez and Scott Shields, saw a much more ineffective and frustrating performance from it's bullpen last year. The Angels coverted only 39 of 56 save opportunities last year, and traded their closer Brian Fuentes to Minnesota towards years end. Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and Kerry Wood are all obvious options, but look for L.A. to possibly get creative and find a cheaper option such as J.J. Putz or Joaquin Benoit to become their new 9th inning man, or they could stay in house and give the job to Fernando Rodney. But they would be doing themselves a disservice if they didn't add depth beyond just a closer. Matt Guerrier, John Rauch, and Chan Ho Park are just a few of the pitchers that would make sense in L.A.

The bottom line is the Angels want to climb back atop the AL West. The good thing for them is this is their best chance to do so in just one offseason.


Oakland A's

This team already is my pick to be the surprise contender in the AL next year. With young arms like Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Justin Duchscherer in their rotation, it smells a lot like the days of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder in Oakland. And the A's bullpen is pretty solid as well, so I don't see much reason for them to address pitching, unless it's to add depth in the pen. But while they have an abundance of pitching, they produce the power of a 3rd world country. They were 2nd to last in home runs last year with 109, only to see their division mates the Mariners produce fewer long balls in the AL.

The A's are going to be very active in obtaining some sticks this offseason, and I am standing firm in my opinion thatOakland is the darkhorse to land Adam Dunn, and I feel they will land him. I don't know why, but Dunn to Oakland just makes a lot of sense. The Athletics lack power of any sort, except for Jack Cust, and they for some reason have soured on Cust over the past 2 years. Oakland might be willing to hide Dunn somewhere in the outfield, but Dunn most likely would be a significant upgrade over Daric Barton who has yet to show any kind of legit big league power.

If the A's swing and miss on Dunn (cruel joke), some back up options would likely be Brad Hawpe, Nick Johnson, Troy Glaus, and Lance Berkman, with whom they've already been linked to in recent days.

If the A's pull the right strings during this offseason via trades (like the dandy they just made for outfielder David DeJesus) and free agency, they very well could be the early favorite to be the Major's surprise team of 2011.

Seattle Mariners

I would say they took offense back to the 1930's in 2010, since they managed only 101 home runs, but the problem is that they also struck out the 2nd most times in the AL, only to be outdone by the swing happy Tampa Bay Rays. This was not an all-or-nothing offense, but rather just a nothing offense.

Seattle's 2010 season was horrific. They were many people's pick to win the AL West, a group in which I'm included, only to fall Evel Knievel-esque short of expectations. The additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley fell flat, and although they added Justin Smoak to their lineup mid-season, they had to give up Cliff Lee to do so.

The Mariners have a lot of issues they need to clean up, so I'll start with the obvious ones. They need bats. They need bats that can make contact. One of the more disturbing stat lines is that Russell Branyan had 25 home runs last year...and only 57 RBI's!!!! That's a lot of solo trips around the base paths.

They could use a 3rd baseman, but I don't see Adrain Beltre coming back any time soon, and I don't see Seattle ponying up the money to brind a guy like that in. Instead, I see Seattle looking at maybe a Pedro Feliz or a Jorge Cantu. Both would be much more inexpensive than a Beltre type and could potentially provide a pretty decent upside.

Another option for a low risk-high reward signing could come if they entertain a player such as Andruw Jones. Jones would bring little to the table in terms of consisten contact, but he did show very acceptable power and can still drive in runs, something the Mariners need badly.

Don't be too surprised if Seattle doesn't also entertain the idea of guys such as Hank Blalock, Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero, and Jason Giambi.

Seattle wouldn't mind grabbing some arms for both their rotation and their bullpen. They won't land any big names like Cliff Lee or Rafael Soriano, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see them pick up names like Kevin Millwood, John Garland, or Rich Harden, and again they could go the cheap low risk-high reward route with someone like a Brandon Webb or Chris Young. The likes of Kelvin Escobar, Mike MacDougal, Will Ohman, Arthur Rhodes, and Octavio Dotel could be viable options to solidify their bullpen.

The Mariners most likely won't succeed in a worst to first renovation this offseason, but it would be nice to see the franchise put some pieces around Felix Hernandez and Ichiro to make their efforts more meaningful over the next couple of years.

P.S. We will all miss Dave Niehaus. Another of the games great voices.

Texas Rangers

Coming off a World Series runner up season, the Texas Rangers should appear as if they are comfortable with their teams position heading into the offseason. Problem is, they are going to have to outbid the Yankees to maintain the services of Cliff Lee. It's not as if losing Lee would be the end of the world, but it certainly would leave a glaring hole at the top of their rotation.

The simplest answer is that the Rangers play off their World Series trip, new ownership, headed by pitching ledgend Nolan Ryan, the promise that Ranger fans will never spit on his wife and call her names, and land Lee for somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 years $115 million. But there is a realistic chance that the Yankees will go above and beyond that offer, and Lee will have to decide if dignity or money is more his thing.

If Lee opts for money, then the Rangers would most likely look in the direction of Jorge De La Rosa to front the rotation with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. De La Rosa would be a significant downgrade from Lee, but with De La Rosa in the rotation, Texas would bolster a strong, solid rotation to go along with their fantastic offense. Alternatives to Lee and De La Rosa would be John Garland, who being a fly ball pitcher might have some problems at the Ballpark in Arlington, Brad Penny, or they could take chances on the likes of a Jeff Francis or a Brandon Webb.

They very well could look to make a move via the trade route. Putting together a package to go after Zack Greinke would be very tough, but would make a lot of sense for Texas.

As far as offense, this team doesn't need much more. They have possibly the best middle of the order in baseball with Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Michael Young, but they would like to retain the services of Vlad Guerrero. If Vlad takes a contract elsewhere, the Rangers could make a play for someone like Magglio Ordonez, or Johnny Damon. And don't think that they wouldn't at least entertain possibly bringing in Jim Thome to help bolster their power production.

Their have been rumors that Texas may look to bring in a power hitting first baseman, such as Paul Konerko, but I have a hard time seeing them discard Mitch Moreland after the way he played in the postseason. But if they do decide to go with someone besides Moreland at first, or decide to let go of Guerrero and bring in someone to platoon with Moreland in a 1B/DH situation, I would be more confident in the Rangers bringing in players along the lines of Derrek Lee, or Lance Berkman, who could be signed for significantly lower than Konerko and still have the potential to give similar numbers.

The Texas Rangers will be looking to duplicate what they did this year and get back to the World Series, but they will not be able to stand pat and receive the same results.

The AL West should provide some interesting maneuvering in the next few month. Bust out the Will Smith albums, cause it's gonna be the wild wild west this winter.

-Ben Wills