And Now An Educated Look at the Big Ten Expansion

If you follow collegiate athletics you are probably acutely aware of the Big Ten’s plans for expansion within the next year to year and a half. If you do not care, you should. The Big Ten is on the verge of fundamentally changing the collegiate football landscape. To understand how all of this will impact the entire league, we first have to understand what the Big Ten is. First and foremost, the Big Ten is the wealthiest conference in terms of television revenue—raking in $242M last year and dividing that evenly amongst all conference members for $22M each. Next, all conference members are affiliated with the Association of American Universities. Membership in this group essentially means you are one of the leading universities in the nation in terms of research. The Committee on Institutional Cooperation is an organization with nearly $6B in research funds available to its members—which all of the Big Ten schools belong to. Academically, all of the Big Ten universities are ranked. All of the Big Ten schools exceed 20,000 in enrollment with the exception of Northwestern—who has one of the largest endowments in the nation with their sub 10,000 enrollment. It is not all about academics in the Big Ten. Every school in the Big Ten has enjoyed at least 1 NCAA athletic championship and several of the most prestigious athletic schools in the country belong to the Big Ten. What is the profile of the Big Ten? Essentially, all Big Ten universities are flagship, Midwestern schools that not only excel in academics and research but athletics as well.

Why does all of this matter? Money alone would warrant any school in the country to seriously consider Big Ten membership. So it is not a stretch to say that if the Big Ten wants you, you will probably want them back. It has been discussed by the Big Ten to add as many as 5 schools. If you really start to think about it, it becomes difficult to find schools that fit the profile. Schools like Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia are laughable. Not only do they have very little to offer the Big Ten, but they strike out in almost every category of the Big Ten profile. More likely candidates include Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. The relationship between the Big Ten and Notre Dame is strenuous to say the least so it is difficult to estimate if the Big Ten will consider them or if they will consider the Big Ten in return. Now you get to more interesting candidates as well: Texas and Nebraska. The theme here: whatever the Big Ten does it is likely not going to be in their own backyard so the conference footprint is about to expand dramatically. Part of this is intentional as more television markets will warrant more revenue for the conference.

Virtually all of these teams are a part of some kind of scenario that has been speculated. In the case of Texas, there is speculation that Texas A&M would have to come along if the state legislature would approve the move. The Big East, with fewer than 9 schools already could not withstand more than 1 school leaving the conference. All of this talk about plucking teams from the Big 12 as well has gotten the PAC-10 considering a similar move. Candidates for them have included Texas schools, Colorado, and some Mountain West universities. Now stop for a second and consider all of this. Two of the most storied and prestigious conferences are considering expanding to 16 teams. The ACC, SEC, and Big 12 all have at least 12 members now. It seems likely that dramatic shifts for the Big 12 and Big East could potentially murder their conference prestige. At the end of the day, we could be left with only 4 relevant, super conferences. Not only would this bust the BCS, it would likely redefine the football divisions as we know them. We are entering a period that will completely alter collegiate athletics as we know them, where schools travel greater distance to compete and can make more money by cutting out the smaller universities. For now, the ball is in the Big Ten’s hands and everyone else is waiting to make their move.

-Anthony Moran