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Monday, October 4, 2010

The Cincinnati Reds: A Season in Review...Round One Playoff Predictions

The Cincinnati Reds are National League Central Division champions.  It has been fifteen long years since those words could leave the mouths of fans in the Queen City.  Fifteen years.  The last time the Reds made the playoffs I, your humble author, was 13 years old.  You know what it was like being 13?  I hope so because I sure as shit don't.  I can barely remember what the 1995 team was like to watch.  I remember that Barry Larkin was a beast and that Ronny Gant had a career year.  I also remember that I wanted to be a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle, so take from that what you wish. 

Anyways, yeah, fifteen years.  What a long road it has been.  From Pokey Reese to Eric Milton to Ken Griffey Jr. to Scott Hatteberg, the Reds have, at times, been absolutely brutal to watch.  I for one had sworn them off more than once over the last ten years.  Not this year.  This year was different from the word 'go'.  With the addition of Aroldis Chapman to the departure of Willy Taveras, I knew that something was brewing.  Our young players, our future, began showing their mettle.  They made this team fun to follow again.  Joey Votto (who goddamn well better win the NL MVP) had more than a breakout season.  He became a superstar in front of our eyes.  Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce, who both struggled during the month of July, worked through adversity and provided an offensive and defensive push in August that guaranteed our victory in the central.  Our pitching was rickety at times, but our starting rotation was solid and Bronson Arroyo had himself a career year on a team full of guys having career years.  Even Jonny Gomes got in on the fun, even though watching his feast or famine swing made me cringe more often than not. 

Let me be brutally honest for a moment.  This summer has not been the easiest for me personally.  I have been on an emotional rollercoaster pretty much throughout.  It's been hard and I've been taxed because of it.  The Reds have kept me afloat more often than I care to admit.  Watching them has taken me out of my own head and given me something real and true to believe in.  They reminded me over and over again why the sport of baseball with its strange intricacies and poetic stoicism is far and away the most literary, most important and most beautiful sport there is.  For nine innings (or more) you are locked inside a world so rife with history and you are enthralled.  You pray for clutch hitting.  You love the dugout pranks.  You hate bad calls and boo strikes and balls.  You watch your favorite hitter step up to the plate and feel like a kid again, waiting for your hero to save your team from certain defeat.  This has been what it's like to be a Reds fan this year.  They have taken their entire fanbase and made them feel young again, made them care about something that may seem so arbitrary to anyone who doesn't understand its long standing and vital place within American history.

I am going to be an absolute mess on Wednesday when the Reds take the field, but no matter the result I will be thankful that this team, these 2010 Cincinnati Reds, have made me believe and hope and wish like a child again.  That's the true championship they have won, that's the true gift they have given all of us.

And now....

YOUR MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS. CINCINNATI REDS

Look, my love for the Reds is going to overshadow any prediction I could make for this series, so I will refuse to make one.  What I'll do instead is analyze!

The Phillies are in no uncertain terms the best team in the NL if not the entire league.  Their offense is absolutely brutal.  Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Shane "Double Flap" Victorino, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz...I mean Jesus Jumped Up Christ there are zero weaknesses.  No lead is safe, no deficit insurmountable.  If your'e going to pitch against them, you have got to bring your best or else you're going to be staring down the barrel of a blowout.  Especially considering the fact that they have three ace pitchers in their rotation.  Halladay is the Cy Young front-runner, Cole Hamels has had a resurgent second half and Roy Oswalt has re-discovered the fact that he's actually a good pitcher when there are people behind him that can play defense (fuck you Astros!).  They are tough, they have an amazing amount of playoff experience and they are the lock down favorite to win this series.

So why are the Reds even showing up?  Well, they can produce some runs too, and they've beaten Halladay once this year (albeit at home).  They've also beaten Roy Oswalt twice, and neither loss was because of the Astros defense, but more because the Reds' offense had finally managed to figure out how to hit his pitching.  Also, don't forget that though they are 2-5 against them this season, three of those losses came down to the last out and neither team was completely healthy.  When last the Reds faced the Phillies (a four game sweep in Philly) they were without Edinson Volquez (game one starter), Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez and both Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce were in the midst of what was arguably the worst hitting slumps of their young careers.  Oh, and Aroldis Chapman was still figuring things out in Louisville.  This playoff roster will be much different.

That being said, the Phillies were not healthy then either.  They were without Utley, Polanco and Carlos Ruiz.  They will not be without them this time around.

The most one can hope for is a good, competitive series.  I predict that regardless of who wins, it will go five games.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. ATLANTA BRAVES

I feel sorry for the Atlanta Braves.  I really do.  They have to travel to San Francisco and face the best starting rotation in the National League (sorry Phillies).  The Giants pitching in the months of September (1.44 era, 0.82 whip) has been absolutely lights out.  Tim Lincecum finally remembered how to pitch like a two time Cy Young winner, Matt Cain finally got some run support and the combined trio of Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez and rookie Madison Bumgarner, along with relievers Ramon Ramirez and Brian Welson (48 saves), helped the Giants overtake the San Diego Padres and win the NL West division. 

Oh, and they have a good offense too.  Aubrey Huff is in the midst of a career year and rookie catcher Buster Posey is playing like a ten year veteran behind the dish.  If anyone is going to make it to the NLCS with ease, it's these Giants. 

The Braves, on the other hand, have some issues.  Their offense has sputtered of late and though the addition of Derrek Lee has helped, they still seem to have trouble pushing runs across the plate consistently.  Their pitching staff is hittable and their relievers, especially Billy Wagner, have been so-so.  I know the feel good prediction here would be to give it to Bobby Cox's team.  But fuck Bobby Cox, he's a wife beater. 

Giants in 4

NEW YORK YANKEES VS. MINNESOTA TWINS

Jesus Christ, the Yankees again?  At least they didn't win their division.  There has never been a team yours truly has hated with so much vitriol outside of the St. Louis Cardinals (how's my ass taste, Cards fans!).  Their lineup has been bought, their manager has fucking BRACES and their fanbase is abhorrent.  Fuck the Yankees. 

What's that?  They're playing the Twins?  Holy moly.  Talk about a lesser of two evils scenario.  Look, the Twins have the better pitching staff and the better relievers.  The Yankees have one lock down starter and really shitty middle relief.  That should be enough to take down the mighty Yanks, who haven't looked all that mighty in September.  Plus, come on, if you're gonna give me the option of rooting for Jim Thome or Alex Rodriguez it's a no brainer. 

Twins in 5

TEXAS RANGERS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS

There is no reason the Rays shouldn't sweep this series.  On paper they have the better pitching staff and better all around offense.  On paper.  In reality, though their pitching is legit, their hitting at times has been putrid.  It seems like every American League pitcher who has come close to or achieved a no-hitter or perfect game has done so against the Rays.  Carlos Pena has zero patience at the plate, B.J. Upton falls victim to insane slumps and defensive lapses and Evan Longoria has had a decidedly down year all around.  The only guy who has been better than average has been Carl Crawford.  Though I suppose we're talking about a team that has quite a bit of playoff experience and one would think that they can turn things around in October. 

Well, they could turn things around, if they weren't playing the Texas Rangers.  Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler....I mean this team can flat out hit.  They will take the Rays starters to task at every at bat and have the ability to chase a guy like David Price after five innings.  Not to mention the fact that they have maybe the best pitcher in baseball in Cliff Lee leading off their starting rotation.  They are tough, hungry and ready.  I don't think the Rays really know what they're walking into. 

Rangers in 5

Stay tuned....

Onward.

-Terrence Adams

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