The NBA is tiresome, the Brett Farve (I refuse to spell it "vr") talk is already starting (ugh, it's only fucking July), and the WNBA is... apparently still a sports league. Thankfully, 2nd half baseball commences today.
Pre-season predictions in baseball are like a Fox News broadcast: not very accurate. With injuries, trades, breakout rookies, and comeback seasons from individual players, it's too hard in March to pick what will happen over the next 6 months. For example, who would've predicted the Padres to be in the race out west. That's right, no one. And if anyone says they did, tell them to go back to their cubicle and look up who Mat Latos is, because they don't know and they didn't see this coming.
But, after the All-Star break, even Buster Olney might have seen enough to possibly make some baseball sense about how things might play out. Unfortunately, all he'll do is continue to talk about the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies.
So, here are my 2nd half MLB predictions.
AL
East: Well, I hate to say it, but it'll be the Yankees. I'm pulling for Tampa Bay, and I think at the moment Tampa Bay has a better staff for the stretch run, but the operative phrase is "at the moment". "Spank" Steinbrenner will honor his dad by gobbling up any player he can get his hands on, and he'll most likely focus on pitching. Don't be surprised if the Yanks take a run at Oswalt or Haren, and adding either or those two to C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes would make for a pretty impressive minaga toi' at the top of the rotation.
For all you bean towners, no chance. This will be a two horse race for the top, and it'll be New York over Tampa Bay by 1 game.
Central: Hey Keith Law, sift through my pubes, find my balls, and suck 'em. You put the "ass bag" in the term "really big fucking ass bag". "You want some sprinkles on those cupcakes?" Umm, you wanna do some research? Oh, I forgot, you work at ESPN and don't have to. The White Sox went 25-5 heading into the break, which would be impressive against little leaguers, let alone any Major League talent. But, what is so ridiculous about that statement is that you did the journalistic equivalent of selective hearing, you wrote only what applied to prove your point and conveniently omitted 2 wins over the 2nd place Tigers, a 3 game sweep over the NL east leading Atlanta Braves, not to mention while facing their top 3 pitchers (Hanson, Hudson, and Lowe), 2 of 3 over the 2nd hottest team in baseball (behind the White Sox) the Texas Rangers, and a 4, yes I said 4, game sweep over the Angels. Keith Law, you are a shitburger. A shitburger with cheese.
Anyway, the Sox are my pick to win the central. It's not just the 25-5 run, but it's more the great starting staff, the at times unhittable bullpen, the timely hitting, the ability to score runs in numerous ways, and most astounding, the lack of panic over losing Jake Peavy for the season. This team has a confidence that is rarely seen from a team that had such a shitty April, May, and part of June, and I expect that to carry over into the 2nd half.
Both the Tigers and the Twins have great line-ups, but neither can match the pitching staff the Sox throw out on a daily basis. The White Sox are expected to make a move to acquire a bat, and if they do that, no one in the division would be as good top to bottom as the South Siders. And if the Sox can get a lefty specialist to add to an already dominate bullpen they would begin to look even scarier. The Chicago White Sox by 3 games.
West: The Texas Rangers have a 4.5 game lead starting the break and I am confident that lead will expand as the season progresses. Texas boasts a mashtastic middle of the order with Vlad, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz. If Ian Kinsler can stay healthy and set the table for those guys then there is no reason the offense should fall off in Arlington.
The addition of Cliff Lee was huge because Colby Lewis won't be able to keep up his performance from the first half, so the Rangers needed to add pitching. Tommy Hunter has pitched very well for so far, but you always have to expect some set back for a young pitcher.
Not to take anything away from the Rangers, but the fact that the Angels have been so inconsistent and the A's and Mariners are so bad is as much of a factor in why the Rangers will run away with the west than it is the Rangers themselves. Unless Los Angeles of Anaheim of Orange County of California make a big splash in a trade, the Rangers will win the division by at least 6 games.
Wild Card: No way!? The Wild Card will come out of the East this year! Yawn. It shouldn't come as a surprise that it'll be either Tampa Bay or Boston, with Detroit and Minnesota (not really Minnesota, but come on, even they don't want to have to focus solely on the Brett Farve media rape) being the only real outsiders that can contend.
In the end it will be Tampa Bay. With Price, Shields, Garza, and Niemann, they have 4 great arms that should lead them into October. They would love to add another bat, but unfortunately for them, they also don't want to sell the farm for anyone. So, most likely they will stay fairly "as is", but "as is" for them should be good enough to get the to the post season. Tampa Bay takes the Wild Card by 2 games.
NL
East: The race for the NL East could be exciting, but only if the Phillies decide they want to actually participate. The Mets are very much in this too, but unless they make a big move before July 31st, they don't have enough to overtake the Braves.
Philly is a damn good team that has, by most people's standards, underachieved. They somehow went like a month without scoring a run at one point, and with their line-up that's pretty amazing. Philly could very well get hot, and they could bring in another arm, but most likely not of the Cliff Lee stature (Pedro, maybe). But when all's said and done, this division crown will belong in Atlanta.
The Braves pitching staff of Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson, and Medlen or Kawakami is too much nasty to lose this division. Their line-up is solid, but it will be reliant on Jason Heyward's health and productivity to continue to stay atop the division. I'm surprised they aren't in more discussions about landing an impact bat, which the trade for Alex Gonzalez isn't, but I guess they hope that McClouth can also return to his 2008 form along with getting a healthy Heyward back.
All said, Atlanta wins by 3 games.
Central: Everyone is taking the Cardinals, but not me. I'm going with the Reds. Everyone is also pointing out that the Cardinals are getting Brad Penny, Ryan Ludwick, and David Freeze back, but I'm pointing out the Reds are awaiting the return of Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, Chris Dickerson, Ramon Hernandez, Mike Lincoln, and Eddison Volquez. Getting Volquez back will almost be like making a trade for a star pitcher since Volquez has electric stuff when healthy, so if all or most of those pieces come back healthy, this team will look damn good.
Johnny Gomes is channeling his inner Eric Davis, Joey Votto is an MVP candidate, and Orlando Cabrera wins everywhere he goes. I still have a gut feeling that Cincinnati has a trade up their sleeves (why not Ben Sheets?) and I think they have enough to stay ahead of St. Louis down the stretch. Pujols and Holliday move over, this division belongs to Votto and Phillips. Reds by 1 game.
West: If I was picking this division by what city has the hottest girls, San Diego might have a shot, but the sentimental favorite is not the logical choice here. I really want San Diego to win. Honestly, I do. But, they played way over their heads and they don't have enough offense to go with their lights out pitching. Latos and the boys will fall short, though their run has been fun to watch.
The question becomes who will overtake the Friars, and the answer is...complicated. Right now, Colorado would be my pick. With Ubaldo Jimenez having a tremendous season, and the Rockies explosive offense, it's hard not to pick them. But, if the Dodgers trade for some pitching, maybe a Roy Oswalt, or San Francisco can obtain a bat, say a Prince Fielder, then the whole landscape of the division changes.
So, my pick for now will be the Rockies. Even if the rest of the division improves, I'll take the spirit of the Rockies (remember the 2 straight comebacks against the Cardinals) over the prospective talent of the rest of the division. Rockies win by 2 games. And if anything else happens, well, then I told you so... kind of.
Wild Card: You can take the Phillies. You can take the Dodgers or Giants. And if you're stupid, you can even take the Mets. Me, I'll take the Cardinals. I would like nothing more for two Mid-West teams to enter the National League playoffs. The Phillies right now would be the favorite, but I can't seen Carpenter and Wainwright not dominating down the stretch to get this team into the playoffs. Cardinals clinch on the last day of the season.
Awards
AL
Cy Young: Cliff Lee- His .095 WHIP is pretty impressive, and his wins will go up now that he's on a good team.
MVP: Josh Hamilton- He wins over Miguel Cabrera based on the fact Texas will make the playoffs and Detroit won't. Going for the triple crown doesn't hurt either.
Manager of the Year: Ron Washington- He traded in cocain for wins, and I'm still not sure that was the better choice. Party at Ron's house.
NL
Cy Young: Josh Johnson- Ubaldo Jimenez is getting more attention, but Johnson's stats are better, and he is a better pitcher, which is kind of frightening.
MVP: Joey Votto- He's leading in home runs (tied with Adam Dunn), slugging, and on-base percentage. Basically, he's the best damn player in the NL right now.
Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox- He's 143 years old and still has his team in the midst of a playoff hunt. He narrowly beats out John Russell, who's only in consideration because he still shows up for work on a daily basis.
Enjoy the 2nd half of the MLB season, crackers.
-Ben Wills
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment